Publication Type
Journal Article
Journal Name
Nigerian Journal of Technological Development
Publication Date
6-1-2026
Abstract
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a climate-sensitive tick-borne zoonosis that remains a significant public health concern in Uganda, where temperature and vapour pressure deficit influence tick ecology and consequently disease transmission. This study aimed to develop and analyse a climate-driven stochastic model for CCHF transmission among ticks, livestock, and humans under environmental variability in Uganda. A compartmental transmission model was formulated and extended into a stochastic differential equation framework by incorporating multiplicative environmental noise. Climate-dependent tick recruitment, development, and mortality were parameterized using district-level temperature and vapour pressure deficit data to capture spatial heterogeneity in transmission risk. Theoretical analyses based on the next-generation matrix, Lyapunov methods, and stochastic stability theory were used to derive the basic reproduction number and establish positivity, boundedness, equilibrium stability, extinction conditions, and the existence of a stationary distribution and ergodicity. Numerical simulations were performed using the Milstein scheme over a three-year period to compare deterministic and stochastic dynamics under endemic and sub-threshold transmission scenarios, while district-level climate data were used to generate spatial risk maps and evaluate model performance against reported CCHF outbreaks. The model reproduced seasonal transmission patterns, predicted rapid disease extinction under subthreshold conditions, and persistent endemic dynamics when R0 > 1. Spatial analyses revealed substantial geographical variation in transmission potential, and model validation achieved a classification accuracy of 79.6% against reported outbreak districts. The proposed framework provides a practical tool for climate-informed CCHF surveillance, spatial risk assessment, early warning, and prioritization of targeted intervention strategies in Uganda.
Keywords
Basic reproduction number, Climate-driven transmission, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Hyalomma ticks, stochastic differential equations, Uganda
Recommended Citation
Kpatchana, P., Aduda, J., & Agboka, K. (2026). Climate-Driven Stochastic Modelling of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Transmission in Uganda. Nigerian Journal of Technological Development, 23 (2), 284-310. https://doi.org/10.63746/njtd.v23i2.4823
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