Modeling the impacts of climate change on the current and future distribution of baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) in Sudan

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date (Issue Year)

2025

Journal Name

Modeling Earth Systems and Environment (MESE)

Abstract

Climate change seriously threatens the forest ecosystem, calling for impact assessment, monitoring, and conservation actions. This study examines the impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of African baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) in Sudan, a species of ecological and socioeconomic significance in arid and semi-arid regions. Using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) with MaxEnt, current and future habitat suitability were assessed under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in 2021–2040 (near-future) and 2081–2100 (far-future), representing intermediate and high-emission trajectories. Occurrence data from field surveys, national inventories, and global repositories were combined with environmental predictors, including bioclimatic, soil, and elevation variables. Results show a notable spatiotemporal variability in baobab habitats. Under SSP2-4.5, suitable areas are projected to decline by 0.74% in the near future but expand by 1.95% in the far future, likely due to the baobab’s tolerance to gradual warming combined with shifting precipitation patterns and delayed ecosystem responses. Conversely, substantial habitat reduction (-7.04%) under SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century, driven by extreme temperature increases and precipitation variability. Habitat stability declines across the two scenarios, with SSP5-8.5 showing the higher turnover rates (9.79%). At state-level, a substantial reduction in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios in North Darfur, Northern, and North Kordofan states, where increasing aridity jeopardizes baobab survival, while Blue Nile and West Kordofan states emerge as critical refugia, offering relatively stable conditions for baobab persistence. These findings provide critical insights for climate adaptation planning in Sudan’s Sahelian ecosystems, supporting efforts to protect vulnerable baobab populations. More broadly, the study contributes to regional and global strategies for conserving climate-sensitive tree species under future climate scenarios.

Keywords

Modeling, climate change, baobab (Adansonia digitata L.), Sudan

Grantee Name(s)

Nasradeen Adam Hamed Gadallah

Type of Grant

DOCTAS (JIRA) – Carnegie Grant

Thematic Area

Climate Change

Funding Statement

 Partnership for Applied Skills in Sciences, Engineering and Technology-Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund (PASET-Rsif) and Carnegie Corporation of New York for their support, which has been instrumental in facilitating this research at the African Center of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Sustainable Agriculture, University Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire and at the International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Morocco.

Link to Full Text

Share

COinS