Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date (Issue Year)

2024

Journal Name

Wiley

Abstract

Climate change is impacting the sustainability of indigenous tree species. However, the impacts of climate change on African olivetree (Olea europaea subspecies Cuspidata) are less-explored. Tis study, conducted in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, aims to de-termine the impacts of climate change on the current and future distributions of the species. A total of 225 presence points andabundance of O. europaea within 20 m × 20 m plots at each location were collected. Additional input variables, such as the 19bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables, and Pedologic data, were used. Maxent software was employed to predict thedistribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios. Te correlation between the tree’s abundance and en-vironmental factors was ascertained using Spearman’s correlation. Te fndings indicated that the most crucial factors afecting thedistribution of the tree were temperature seasonality, altitude, and precipitations during the driest month. Te current range of thespecies covered 1979 km 2 (3.01%) of Tigray. Tis coverage is expected to increase by 13.64% under 2070_RCP4.5 scenario.However, under 2070_RCP8.5, a total loss of suitable habitats is anticipated. Rainfall, slope, altitude, soil organic carbon, and siltcontents had a positive correlation with the species abundance, whereas sand, clay, bulk density, and soil pH had a negativecorrelation (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the species may locally disappear due to the adverse efects of future climate change under theRCP8.5. Hence, the study recommends immediate in situ and ex situ conservation eforts to sustain the populations and importantvalues of the tree.

Keywords

Impacts, Climate Change, Distribution, African Wild Olive Tree, Arid Environments, Northern Ethiopia

Grantee Name(s)

Haftu Abrha

Project Title

Building Resilience against Socio-environmental shocks of Wujig Mahgo Waren Forest in Tigray Region, Ethiopia

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