Publication Type

Journal Article

Journal Name

Environment, Development and Sustainability

Publication Date

1-1-2025

Abstract

Understanding land use/ land cover (LULC) dynamics and the factors that drive these changes is critical for future prediction of landscape structure and development of sustainable and robust land-management strategies and policies. However, little is known about the proximate and underlying factors driving LULC dynamics and perceptions of land users of these dynamics. This study aimed to assess the local land users’ perception of LULC change trends in Gedaref state in Sudan and to determine the approximate and underling drivers that caused such changes in LULC. Initially, we utilized satellite-based LULC maps for the period 1988–2018 that were generated using a robust approach. Subsequently, we used Mann–Kendall trend analysis for the satellite-based LULC changes (area in ha) and the actual crop cultivated area (ha), which were compared with local farmers’ perceptions. A multinomial logistic regression was also employed to determine the major drivers that influence LULC changes in Gedaref state. This was based on a semi-structured questionnaire with 400 respondents. Furthermore, we employed Pearson correlation test and multiple linear regression to assess the effect of change drivers on the area (ha) of the main landscape classes in Gedaref state (i.e., cropland, forest and settlement). Cropland and settlement areas increased (from 78.64 to 89.59%) and (from 0.11 to 0.44%), respectively during the study period. In contrast, forest area decreased (from 1.08 to 0.47%). The results of the semi-structured questionnaire revealed that the satellite-based LULC change trends (area) agreed with respondents’ perceptions. Specifically, 55.5% of the respondents observed an expansion in the cropland area and 96.5% reported an increment in the settlement. Whereas 96.5% of the respondents observed a decline in the forest area. Furthermore, the study shows that the main drivers for LULC changes in Gedaref state were firewood collection, agricultural expansion, charcoal production, settlements, poverty and population growth. The sex of the household head, age, sex of the respondent, education level and farming experience significantly (p ≤ 0.05) influenced the respondents’ perceptions of LULC changes in Gedaref state. Moreover, temperature, amount of rainfall and population growth were positively correlated with the change in cropland and settlement areas (a correlation coefficient (r) ranged between 0.80 and 0.98). While the same variables negatively influenced change in forest areas, with r ranging between 0.47 and 0.88. The findings of this study could be useful for planners and decision-makers for developing coherent land use policies and management strategies.

Keywords

Africa, Earth observation, Local perceptions, Population growth, Rainfed agriculture, Rural livelihoods, Sustainable development goals

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