System dynamics modelling of temperature effects on stemborer phenology in Kenyan maize ecosystems

Publication Type

Journal Article

Journal Name

International Journal of Tropical Insect Science

Publication Date

1-1-2025

Abstract

This research investigates how temperature impacts insect pest phenology and population dynamics, focusing on maize stemborers, Busseola fusca and Chilo partellus, across Kenya’s agroecological zones. Utilizing system thinking archetypes and system dynamics modelling with Vensim PLP 9.0 software, it explores the interactions between insect life stages, temperature, and host plant availability. The study revealed that B. fusca is more suited to highland regions while C. partellus prefers lowland areas. Notably, the larval stage, responsible for significant crop damage, constituted 32 to 42% of the population within the agroecosystem, underscoring its pivotal role in pest population dynamics. The model captures the cyclical nature of these populations, emphasizing the importance of region-specific pest management strategies to address the varying dynamics in different zones. The findings advocate for the development of tailored pest management approaches that may also serve as early warning systems, enabling proactive pest control. This approach could help minimize the reliance on chemical pesticides, promoting sustainable agricultural practices and enhancing food security. The research highlights the necessity of understanding regional pest behaviours and offers comprehensive strategies for managing pests in the context of climate change, thus contributing to sustainable agricultural development and ecological preservation.

Keywords

Holometabolous insect, Maize stemborers, Phenology, Population dynamics, System dynamics modelling, System thinking

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