Hydrological and soil loss dynamics under climate and land cover change in a dry Afromontane Forest, Tigray, Ethiopia

Publication Type

Journal Article

Journal Name

Environment Development and Sustainability

Publication Date

1-1-2025

Abstract

Runoff and soil loss affect the achievement of certain Sustainable Development Goals. Hugumbrda Grat-khasu National Forest in Ethiopia faces pressure from various environmental and human activities. The aim of this research is to model runoff and soil loss in response to environmental variables, utilizing spatial-temporal satellite images and ground observation data for the selected years 1985, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. Climate trends for the period 1980–2020 were also estimated. The results showed that woody vegetation increased from 68.8%, 71.3%, 80.3%, 76.2%, and 84.4% in 1985, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Significant changes were observed in soil loss, runoff, and rainfall. Across all meteorological stations, temperatures have significantly increased (P < 0.05). Precipitation has shown significant variations, with both decreases and increases observed (P < 0.05). Approximately 96.45% of the soil type, 35% of the forest slope, and 47.01% of the forest elevation area are susceptible to runoff. The average annual runoff was 80.25, 112.3, 143.64, 210.6, and 99.85 mm in the years 1985, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. The average soil loss was 3.03, 7.12, 16.31, 6.96, and 15.51 tons ha⁻¹ in the years 1985, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Both runoff and soil loss showed an increasing trend. Rainfall, altitude, and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) were key variables influencing both runoff and soil loss. Management of forests, as well as the implementation of measures for conserving soil and water, and the utilization of floodwater should be applied with the goal of mitigating the impacts of runoff and climate change.

Keywords

Climate change, Environmental variables, Runoff, Soil loss, Tigray

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