Remote sensing integrated modeling of fall armyworm parasitoid interactions in Africa using fractional differential equations

Publication Type

Journal Article

Journal Name

Ecological Modelling

Name of Author

• Marian Adan, Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung
• Steeven Belvinos Affognon, International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology Nairobi
• Henri E.Z. Tonnang, International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology Nairobi
• Klaus Greve, Universität Bonn
• Christian Borgemeister, Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung
• Georg Goergen, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture Contonou

Publication Date

9-1-2026

Abstract

The invasion of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda; FAW) into Africa poses a major threat to agricultural systems, particularly maize production, necessitating effective biological control strategies. This study presents an ecological modelling framework that integrates temperature data with fractional differential equations (FDEs) to investigate interactions between FAW and its parasitoid natural enemies. By incorporating temperature-driven effects on life-history traits and ecological memory dynamics, the model captures key features of host–parasitoid interactions under variable environmental conditions. Equilibrium states corresponding to FAW extinction, parasitoid extinction, and coexistence were analytically derived, and sensitivity analysis of the FAW reproduction number highlighted its central role in regulating population stability. Numerical simulations demonstrated the influence of fractional-order memory effects on system behaviour, while spatial analysis identified heterogeneous risk zones that support geographically targeted pest management interventions. Model validation revealed a strong positive relationship between simulated reproduction rates and observed oviposition patterns (r = 0.89), indicating high predictive performance. Overall, this framework enhances understanding of FAW–parasitoid dynamics and provides a quantitative basis for developing climate-responsive and biologically based pest management strategies in African agricultural systems.

Keywords

Fall armyworm, Fractional differential equations, Maize biomass, Parasitoid, Remote sensing

Recommended Citation

Adan, M., Affognon, S., Tonnang, H., Greve, K., Borgemeister, C., & Goergen, G. (2026). Remote sensing integrated modeling of fall armyworm parasitoid interactions in Africa using fractional differential equations. Ecological Modelling, 519 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111671

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.