Historical climate change reshapes the thermal niche of Rhipicephalus sanguineus s.l. (Acari: Ixodidae) under uncertainty

Publication Type

Journal Article

Journal Name

Veterinary Parasitology

Publication Date

8-1-2026

Abstract

Climate change is altering the environmental conditions that regulate vector persistence, yet attribution remains difficult where long-term surveillance data are limited. Here, we developed a trait-based mechanistic framework to quantify climate-attributable changes in the environmental persistence potential of Rhipicephalus sanguineus s.l. using a host-delay persistence metric, RH,τ. The framework integrates temperature- and humidity-dependent development, mortality, fecundity, and dog-host availability within a factual–counterfactual climate design. Seasonal dynamics were retained by computing RH,τ from long-term monthly climatologies before deriving annual, quarterly, and four-month temporal summaries. Three lineage-specific parameterizations, derived from the Florida (FL), North Carolina (NC), and California (CA) laboratory colonies, were evaluated. The predictive performance of each parameterization was validated against independent Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) occurrence records using the Continuous Boyce Index, Cliff's delta, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, and occurrence–background median differences. Validation showed strong ecological performance across parameterizations and temporal summaries, with annual, quarterly, and four-month products consistently ranking among the best-performing models. Under factual climate conditions, elevated RH,τ values were concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and northern Australia. Climate-attributable changes, ΔRH,τ= (RH,τfactual − RH,τcounterfactual), were spatially heterogeneous, with both positive and negative responses across regions. Pairwise comparisons showed positive but variable consistency among parameterizations, with Pearson correlations of 0.36–0.62 and directional sign agreement of 65.5–72.2%. The mean ΔRH,τ across parameterizations identified consensus regions where observed climate has increased or reduced environmental persistence. Overall, the framework provides a validated mechanistic approach for assessing climate-driven changes in vector persistence under parameterization uncertainty.

Keywords

Climate attribution, Environmental persistence, GBIF validation, Host-delay model, Mechanistic modelling, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, Tick ecology

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