Modeling the impacts of climate change on the current and future distribution of baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) in Sudan

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date (Issue Year)

2025

Journal Name

Modeling Earth Systems and Environment

Abstract

Climate change seriously threatens the forest ecosystem, calling for impact assessment, monitoring, and conservation actions. This study examines the impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of African baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) in Sudan, a species of ecological and socioeconomic significance in arid and semi-arid regions. Using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) with MaxEnt, current and future habitat suitability were assessed under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in 2021–2040 (near-future) and 2081–2100 (far-future), representing intermediate and high-emission trajectories. Occurrence data from field surveys, national inventories, and global repositories were combined with environmental predictors, including bioclimatic, soil, and elevation variables. Results show a notable spatiotemporal variability in baobab habitats. Under SSP2-4.5, suitable areas are projected to decline by 0.74% in the near future but expand by 1.95% in the far future, likely due to the baobab’s tolerance to gradual warming combined with shifting precipitation patterns and delayed ecosystem responses. Conversely, substantial habitat reduction (-7.04%) under SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century, driven by extreme temperature increases and precipitation variability. Habitat stability declines across the two scenarios, with SSP5-8.5 showing the higher turnover rates (9.79%). At state-level, a substantial reduction in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios in North Darfur, Northern, and North Kordofan states, where increasing aridity jeopardizes baobab survival, while Blue Nile and West Kordofan states emerge as critical refugia, offering relatively stable conditions for baobab persistence. These findings provide critical insights for climate adaptation planning in Sudan’s Sahelian ecosystems, supporting efforts to protect vulnerable baobab populations. More broadly, the study contributes to regional and global strategies for conserving climate-sensitive tree species under future climate scenarios.

Keywords

Modeling, climate change, baobab (Adansonia digitata L.), Sudan

Rsif Scholar Name

Nasradeen A.H Gadallah

Rsif Scholar Nationality

Sudan

Cohort

Cohort 3

Thematic Area

Climate Change

Africa Host University (AHU)

University Felix Houphouët-Boigny (U-FHB), Côte d'Ivoire

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