Exploring the paths of carbon sequestration potential in Sudan's savanna woodlands: A scenario analysis

Publication Type

Journal Article

Name of Author

• Nasradeen A.H. Gadallah, African Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Agriculture, Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'IvoireFollow
• Zoro Bertin Gone Bi, African Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Agriculture, Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
• Victor Ongoma, International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
• Fath Alrhman A.A. Younis, Faculty of Forest Sciences and Technology, University of Gezira, Wad Madani, Sudan Faculty of Forestry, University of Sopron, Sopron, Hungary
• Taofic Abdel Fabrice Alabi, African Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Agriculture, Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
• Mai M.A. Hassan, Forestry and Gum Arabic Research Centre, Agriculture Research Corporation, Soba, Khartoum, Sudan
• Awad Elkarim S.O. Khalifa, Institute of Gum Arabic Research and Desertification Studies, University of Kordofan, Elobied, Sudan
• Arona Diedhiou, African Centre of Excellence on Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainable Agriculture, Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
• Ahmed A.H Siddig, Department of Forest Conservation and Protection, Faculty of Forestry, University of Khartoum, Khartoum North, Sudan Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA,

Publication Date (Issue Year)

2026

Journal Name

Journal of Arid Environments

Abstract

Despite their important role in the global carbon cycle, savanna woodlands remain underrepresented in climate mitigation assessments, especially in developing countries with limited field data and expertise. This study quantifies and projects carbon stocks (CS) and mitigation potential in the Alain Forest Area (ALFA), Sudan, under two scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+). Systematic field surveys measured tree and soil attributes to determine CS across four land-cover (LC) classes, while satellite imagery characterized topographic and LC changes from 1992 to 2022. Future LC and CS projections to 2032 were modeled using CA-Markov and InVEST models, respectively. Results show substantial spatial variation in CS capacity, with mean carbon density estimated at 64.93 Mg C ha⁻¹ and total CS at ALFA reaching 1,222,976.64 Mg C (equivalent to 4,488,324.25 Mg CO₂e). Carbon fluxes show an annual sequestration rate of 7865.94 Mg C yr⁻¹ during 2012-2022, projected to shift to net emissions (−13,746.35 Mg C yr⁻¹) by 2032 under BAU, contrasting with the REDD + scenario. The projections demonstrate a strong mitigation potential, maintaining net carbon gains (+349,142.40 Mg C). Tree species richness and diameter at breast height emerged as the key positive associates of CS, whereas elevation and NDVI showed negative correlations. The findings emphasize savanna woodlands as significant carbon reservoirs for climate change mitigation and demonstrate REDD + effectiveness in sustaining ecosystem carbon storage.

Keywords

African savanna, Biomass, Carbon sequestration, Forestry, Soil organic carbon, Sudan Wetlands

Rsif Scholar Name

Nasradeen A.H. Gadallah

Rsif Scholar Nationality

Sudan

Cohort

Cohort 3

Thematic Area

Climate Change

Africa Host University (AHU)

University Felix Houphouët-Boigny (U-FHB), Côte d'Ivoire

Funding Statement

Partnership for Applied Skills in Sciences, Engineering, and Technology-Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund (PASET-RSIF) and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for funding this work. We also acknowledge the National Forest Corporation of Sudan in Khartoum and the North Kordofan State.

Recommended Citation

Gadallah, N. A., Gone Bi, Z. B., Ongoma, V., Younis, F. A., Alabi, T. F., Hassan, M. M., Khalifa, A. E., Diedhiou, A., & Siddig, A. A. (2026). Exploring the paths of carbon sequestration potential in Sudan's savanna woodlands: A scenario analysis. Journal of Arid Environments https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2026.105633