Modeling of Intraday Fluctuations in Future Climate Parameters and Their Impact on Perovskite Solar Modules, from a Sustainable Development Perspective

Publication Type

Journal Article

Name of Author

• Wakiang Emile Latchiba, Condensed Matter Research Group, Department of Physics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, KenyaFollow
• Sebastian Waita, Condensed Matter Research Group, Department of Physics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
• Robert Kruege, Department of Social Science and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA
• Julius M. Mwabora, Condensed Matter Research Group, Department of Physics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

Publication Date (Issue Year)

2026

Journal Name

Journal of Power and Energy Engineering

Abstract

Modeling of intraday fluctuation in future climate parameters. This study uses ARIMA and LSTM models to evaluate and examine the prediction accuracy of four main meteorological parameters (solar irradiance, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) that have an impact on perovskite solar modules using Chad as an example. The findings show that the use of averaged climatic data considerably obscures the effects of intraday fluctuation, which significantly increases power output volatility and speeds up degradation. Increasing short-term temperature extremes may further jeopardize system reliability, according to projections under future climate scenarios. The results highlight the necessity of climate-resilient photovoltaic modeling techniques for long-term technological viability and sustainable energy system design. The significance of national and international policy decisions in shaping Chad’s demographic, economic, and environmental future is highlighted by these Shared Socioeconomic Pathway projections (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3- 7.0, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). Chad has an important opportunity to pursue a sustainable development pathway that balances economic growth, social equity, and environmental stewardship.

Keywords

Intraday Climate Variability, Perovskite Solar Modules, Future Climate Scenario, Sustainable Development, Climate Change Adaptation in Energy Systems

Rsif Scholar Name

Wakiang Emile Latchiba

Rsif Scholar Nationality

Chad

Cohort

Cohort 4

Thematic Area

Energy including Renewables

Africa Host University (AHU)

University of Nairobi (UoN), Kenya

Funding Statement

Partnership for Applied Sciences, Engineering, and Technology (PASET)-Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund (RSIF) and the Carnegie Corporation of New York

Recommended Citation

Latchiba, W. E., Waita, S., Kruege, R., & Mwabora, J. (2026). Modeling of Intraday Fluctuations in Future Climate Parameters and Their Impact on Perovskite Solar Modules, from a Sustainable Development Perspective. Journal of Power and Energy Engineering, 14 (6), 42-74. https://doi.org/10.4236/jpee.2026.146004