Impacts of climate change on the distribution of African wild olive tree in the arid environments of Northern Ethiopia

Publication Type

Journal Article

Name of Author

• Yirga Guf, Tigray Institute of Policy Studies, Mekelle, Ethiopia
• Berihu Tesfamariam, Ethiopian Forestry Development, Mekelle Centre, Mekelle, Ethiopia
• Ashenaf Manaye, hinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Zhongguancun South China
• Ambago Desalegn, Ethiopian Forestry Development, Diredawa Center, Diredawa, Ethiopia
• Tesfay Gidey, Adigrat University, Adigrat, Ethiopia
• Haftu Abrha Mengesha, University Felix Houphouët-Boigny (U-FHB), Côte d'IvoireFollow
• Sibhatleab Hintsa, Tigray Agricultural Research Institute, Mekelle, Ethiopia

Publication Date (Issue Year)

2024

Journal Name

International Journal of Ecology

Abstract

Climate change is impacting the sustainability of indigenous tree species. However, the impacts of climate change on African olivetree (Olea europaeasubspeciesCuspidata) are less-explored. Tis study, conducted in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, aims to de-termine the impacts of climate change on the current and future distributions of the species. A total of 225 presence points andabundance ofO. europaeawithin 20 m×20 m plots at each location were collected. Additional input variables, such as the 19bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables, and Pedologic data, were used. Maxent software was employed to predict thedistribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios. Te correlation between the tree’s abundance and en-vironmental factors was ascertained using Spearman’s correlation. Te fndings indicated that the most crucial factors afecting thedistribution of the tree were temperature seasonality, altitude, and precipitations during the driest month. Te current range of thespecies covered 1979 km2(3.01%) of Tigray. Tis coverage is expected to increase by 13.64% under 2070_RCP4.5 scenario.However, under 2070_RCP8.5, a total loss of suitable habitats is anticipated. Rainfall, slope, altitude, soil organic carbon, and siltcontents had a positive correlation with the species abundance, whereas sand, clay, bulk density, and soil pH had a negativecorrelation (p< 0.05). In conclusion, the species may locally disappear due to the adverse efects of future climate change under theRCP8.5. Hence, the study recommends immediate in situ and ex situ conservation eforts to sustain the populations and importantvalues of the tree.

Keywords

African WildOlive Tree, Arid Environments, Northern Ethiopia

Rsif Scholar Name

Haftu Abrha Mengesha

Rsif Scholar Nationality

Ethiopia

Cohort

Cohort 2

Thematic Area

Climate Change

Africa Host University (AHU)

University Felix Houphouët-Boigny (U-FHB), Côte d'Ivoire

Funding Statement

ASET Regional Scholarship and InnovationFund (RSIF) DOCTAS project, funded by the CarnegieCorporation of New York, International Centre of InsectPhysiology and Ecology (ICIPE), for the invaluable supportto Haftu Abrha as a research coordinator. In addition, weacknowledged to the Foundation Franklinia (grant Id: 2020-15), the Ruford Foundation (grant numbers: 21680-1,26273-2, 31671-B, 40760-D and 44765-C) and the People’sTrust for Endangered Species fo

Recommended Citation

Guf, Y., Tesfamariam, B., Manaye, A., Desalegn, A., Gidey, T., Mengesha, H. A., & Hintsa, S. (2024). Impacts of climate change on the distribution of African wild olive tree in the arid environments of Northern Ethiopia. International Journal of Ecology, 2024 (1), 1382690. https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/1382690